Publications

• “Severe Weather and the Macroeconomy” with Hee Soo Kim and Toan Phan, AEJ: Macro, forthcoming
• “Assessing Macroeconomic Tail Risk” with Francesca Loria and Donghai Zhang, Economic Journal, forthcoming
• “Averaging Impulse Responses Using Prediction Pools” with Paul Ho and Thomas Lubik, Journal of Monetary Economics, Volume 146, September 2024
• “Indeterminacy and Imperfect Information” with Thomas Lubik and Elmar Mertens, Review of Economic Dynamics, Volume 49, July 2023, Pages 37-57
• “How to Go Viral:A COVID-19 Model with Endogenously Time-Varying Parameters” with Paul Ho and Thomas Lubik, Journal of Econometrics, Volume 232, Issue 1, January 2023, Pages 70-86
• “Learning about Regime Change” with Andrew Foerster, International Economic Review, Volume 63, Issue 4, November 2022, Pages 1829-1859
• “Economic Theories and Macroeconomic Reality” with Francesca Loria and Mu-Chun Wang, Journal of Monetary Economics, Volume 126, March 2022, Pages 105-117
• “Understanding the Size of the Government Spending Multiplier: It’s All in the Sign” with Regis Barnichon and Davide Debortoli, Review of Economic Studies, Volume 89, Issue 1, January 2022, Pages 87–117 (Online Appendix)
• “Monetary Policy across Space and Time” with Laura Liu and Katerina Petrova, Essays in Honor of Fabio Canova (Advances in Econometrics) (Online Appendix)
• “Forecasting the COVID-19 epidemic: the case of New Zealand” with Paul Ho and Thomas Lubik, New Zealand Economic Papers, 2022, Volume 56, No. 1, 9–16
• “A composite likelihood approach for dynamic structural models” with Fabio Canova, Economic Journal, Volume 131, Issue 638, August 2021, Pages 2447–2477
• “Dealing With Misspecification in Structural Macroeconometric Models” with Fabio Canova, Quantitative Economics, Volume 12, Issue 2, Pages 313-350 (lead article)
• “Are the Effects of Financial Market Disruptions Big or Small?” with Regis Barnichon and Alexander Ziegenbein, Review of Economics & Statistics, (2022) 104 (3): 557–570
• “Detecting and Analyzing the Effects of Time-Varying Parameters in DSGE Models” with Fabio Canova and Filippo Ferroni, International Economic Review, February 2020, vol. 61, No. 1 (Online Appendix)
• “Choosing Prior Hyperparameters” with Pooyan Amir-Ahmadi and Mu-Chun Wang,  Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 2020, 38:1, 124-136 (Online Appendix )
• “Functional Approximation of Impulse Responses” with Regis Barnichon, Journal of Monetary Economics, November 2018, vol. 99, Pages 41-55 (Online Appendix, Code for FAIR models)
• “Two-sided Learning and Short-Run Dynamics in a New Keynesian Model of the Economy” with Francesca Rondina, Economics Letters, Volume 159, October 2017, Pages 53-56 (Appendix)
• “Measurement Errors and Monetary Policy: Then and Now” with Pooyan Amir-Ahmadi and Mu-Chun Wang, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Volume 79, June 2017, Pages 66-78 (Appendix)
• “Indeterminacy and Learning: An Analysis of Monetary Policy in the Great Inflation” with Thomas Lubik, Journal of Monetary Economics, September 2016, vol. 82, pages 85-106
• “Drifts and Volatilities under Measurement Error: Assessing Monetary Policy Shocks over the Last Century” with Pooyan Amir-Ahmadi and Mu-Chun Wang , Quantitative Economics, July 2016, vol. 7 (2), pages 591-611 (this is a substantially revised version of Richmond Fed working paper 14-10)
• “Learning about Fiscal Policy and the Effects of Policy Uncertainty”  with Josef Hollmayr , Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, October 2015, vol. 59, pages 142-162 (Appendix )
• “Optimized Taylor Rules for Disinflation When Agents are Learning “ with Tim Cogley and Argia Sbordone, Journal of Monetary Economics, May 2015, vol. 72, pages 131-147 (Appendix)
• “Figuring Out the Fed - Beliefs about Policymakers and Gains from Transparency “  Journal of Money, Credit & Banking, 2015, vol. 47(1), pages 1-29 (lead article) (Appendix)
• “Choosing the variables to estimate singular DSGE models” with Fabio Canova and Filippo Ferroni,  Journal of  Applied Econometrics, 2014, vol. 29(7), pages 1099-1117
• “What Drives Inflation in New Keynesian Models?” with Mu-Chun Wang.  Economics Letters, 2012, Elsevier, vol. 114(3), pages 338-342
• “A Bayesian Approach to Optimal Monetary Policy with Parameter and Model Uncertainty” with Bianca De Paoli, Tim Cogley, Kalin Nikolov and Tony Yates. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2011, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 2186-2212. Appendix